Market Conditions and Capacity
Cedents purchasing credit, surety and political risk reinsurance for the January 1 renewals will encounter abundant capacity and favourable negotiation terms, according to Willis Re's October market view. Reinsurers enter the renewal period with record capital and strong returns, directing spare capital into specialty lines as property catastrophe pricing softens. Lloyd’s has emerged as an expanding centre for the class following the July 2025 removal of premium income limits on credit and financial guarantee business, with direct credit insurance premium growing by approximately a quarter in 2025 to reach around £1.6 billion. Established reinsurers continue to set prices while new capacity arrives from entrants such as Oak Re, Atradius Syndicate 1864, Coface Syndicate 2546, and Credeq Syndicate 1998.
Underwriting Scrutiny and Portfolio Performance
While conditions favour buyers with clean data, reinsurers remain selective. Proportional ceding commissions are expected to remain broadly stable to modestly higher for clean portfolios, but programmes with severity losses or exposures in data centres, Brazil, or stressed sovereigns will face closer examination. Trade credit remains profitable with loss ratios returning toward long-term averages following Covid-era lows, though Atradius UK claims data showed August figures 8% higher year-on-year, with financial-sector claims up 30% over the year. Furthermore, the implementation of Basel 3.1 on January 1, 2027, will influence UK bank demand for credit insurance as unfunded credit protection.